All the talk these days is about how the FCC just voted (3-2) to void existing "Net Neutrality" regulations established two years ago That policy, which has kept internet service providers (ISPs) from favoring some internet traffic over others, is now reversed. There has been plenty of speculation about what will happen next, as ISPs can now do what they want, overall.
As much as I usually avoid speculation, I do have a few things to say.
1. Short term. I predict that the ISPs will avoid obvious customer price gouging as that is likely to produce the most backlash by the public. They will more likely use subtle means to 'skim' more income, including 'back end' price changes (charging Netflix more to stream movies, so that Netflix has to absorb the costs and eventually increase rates, for example), and by providing more "free" (aka "zero rated") content to tilt the playing field, so to speak. For example, let's say they invite you to download as much as you want from certain services that they provide or sponsor without it counting toward to your monthly data download allowance. Free content looks like a perk to consumers, but it has the side effect of encouraging traffic to their (the ISP's) favorite (crony) web services while charging normal rates for everything else.
This little trick is unlikely to cause as much backlash, because who will complain about free content? Perhaps it will appear to hurt ISP revenues at first, but in the long run, there are other ways for them to "monetize" their favored services and recoup any potential losses.
2. Long term. The so-called "private sector" is largely a myth. Giant companies are so intertwined in government, they are now an integral part of it, what with lobbyists, PAC money, and 'revolving door' appointments (such as the FCC commissioner himself, recently working for Verizon). As there are fewer than 10 players in many major industries (such as processed food, news & entertainment, etc.) they have the effect of being just another government to the rest of us. If you live where there is only one ISP for broadband, you have no choice, no free market. You are governed by their policies, period.
How did this happen? Easy. After the last major economic panic in 2008, the Federal Reserve decided to 'stimulate the economy' by providing loans at low or zero interest to banks and other big corporations. These giant businesses were able to use the money to buy up or merge with their competitors! Why compete when you can offer your competitor a sweet retirement package, in effect. Poof! No more messy competition. I mean, if you had struggled to build a business by working 60 hours a week for years, and someone came along and said, "I'll give you 30 million dollars for the whole thing - give us the keys to the front door and walk away with the money," would you do it? I bet you would. Retire, vacation, invest in a hobby, or even start up some other business if you like. So after all these mergers and acquisitions, we've ended up with a few mega corporations dominating many of todays major business sectors.
So, now, like it or not, the work of regulation now falls to the states, and to the municipalities, even. I know, I can hear the response to this now: "The internet is now a world wide system, so how can the states or cities ever hope to control it?" Ok, in the long run, even they will only make a dent.
3. The really big picture: We are entering a world of decentralization and diversity. The Federal Government is actually becoming less and less effective every day. In spite of the centralization of power we now see, my prediction is that eventually, these behemoths (giant corporations which now effectively 'govern' us) will fail because we, the public, will do more and more on the local level, bypassing their services and creating our own sustainability at the neighborhood and town level. We are already doing this, although we're just getting started. Solar panels and windmills on our roofs, food directly from farmers at local markets, entertainment at local coffeehouses, storytelling stages, etc. Yes, we will have to fight to overturn federal and state regulations that attempt to restrict freedom of cities, towns, truly small businesses, and non-profit citizen groups. But I see that as eventually becoming more and more successful as people start to get up and get active.
As much as I usually avoid speculation, I do have a few things to say.
1. Short term. I predict that the ISPs will avoid obvious customer price gouging as that is likely to produce the most backlash by the public. They will more likely use subtle means to 'skim' more income, including 'back end' price changes (charging Netflix more to stream movies, so that Netflix has to absorb the costs and eventually increase rates, for example), and by providing more "free" (aka "zero rated") content to tilt the playing field, so to speak. For example, let's say they invite you to download as much as you want from certain services that they provide or sponsor without it counting toward to your monthly data download allowance. Free content looks like a perk to consumers, but it has the side effect of encouraging traffic to their (the ISP's) favorite (crony) web services while charging normal rates for everything else.
This little trick is unlikely to cause as much backlash, because who will complain about free content? Perhaps it will appear to hurt ISP revenues at first, but in the long run, there are other ways for them to "monetize" their favored services and recoup any potential losses.
2. Long term. The so-called "private sector" is largely a myth. Giant companies are so intertwined in government, they are now an integral part of it, what with lobbyists, PAC money, and 'revolving door' appointments (such as the FCC commissioner himself, recently working for Verizon). As there are fewer than 10 players in many major industries (such as processed food, news & entertainment, etc.) they have the effect of being just another government to the rest of us. If you live where there is only one ISP for broadband, you have no choice, no free market. You are governed by their policies, period.
How did this happen? Easy. After the last major economic panic in 2008, the Federal Reserve decided to 'stimulate the economy' by providing loans at low or zero interest to banks and other big corporations. These giant businesses were able to use the money to buy up or merge with their competitors! Why compete when you can offer your competitor a sweet retirement package, in effect. Poof! No more messy competition. I mean, if you had struggled to build a business by working 60 hours a week for years, and someone came along and said, "I'll give you 30 million dollars for the whole thing - give us the keys to the front door and walk away with the money," would you do it? I bet you would. Retire, vacation, invest in a hobby, or even start up some other business if you like. So after all these mergers and acquisitions, we've ended up with a few mega corporations dominating many of todays major business sectors.
So, now, like it or not, the work of regulation now falls to the states, and to the municipalities, even. I know, I can hear the response to this now: "The internet is now a world wide system, so how can the states or cities ever hope to control it?" Ok, in the long run, even they will only make a dent.
3. The really big picture: We are entering a world of decentralization and diversity. The Federal Government is actually becoming less and less effective every day. In spite of the centralization of power we now see, my prediction is that eventually, these behemoths (giant corporations which now effectively 'govern' us) will fail because we, the public, will do more and more on the local level, bypassing their services and creating our own sustainability at the neighborhood and town level. We are already doing this, although we're just getting started. Solar panels and windmills on our roofs, food directly from farmers at local markets, entertainment at local coffeehouses, storytelling stages, etc. Yes, we will have to fight to overturn federal and state regulations that attempt to restrict freedom of cities, towns, truly small businesses, and non-profit citizen groups. But I see that as eventually becoming more and more successful as people start to get up and get active.
| Look what happened in Kansas after the governor cut all the taxes and decimated services because he said the resulting economic stimulation would take care of it all. Colossal failure! The legislature finally rejected the whole thing this past June (2017) as reported in THIS STORY here. (see sidebar) | But now, almost five years into [governor] Brownback’s “real live experiment” in trickle-down economics, the evidence from the experiment is in. Brownback’s hypothesis about taxes and growth was decidedly not proved. And even Kansas Republicans have had enough. |
The more that kind of thing is implemented and fails, the more people are likely to spread the word and vote against that and the candidates that support that in the future.
Meanwhile, the internet will still be here for a long time to come. People will work hard to reformat and reorganize and reengineer it to create new ways to share information and keep in touch, far and wide. We are going to find a way.
Meanwhile, the internet will still be here for a long time to come. People will work hard to reformat and reorganize and reengineer it to create new ways to share information and keep in touch, far and wide. We are going to find a way.
RSS Feed